Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Resolves YES if Lula is declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (first round, if he wins outright with >50%, or the runoff if the race goes to a second round). Resolves NO if any other candidate is declared the winner. If Lula withdraws, is disqualified, or is otherwise unable to stand before the final round is decided, this market resolves NO. Resolution Source: Official results published by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), corroborated by at least one major international wire service (Reuters or AP). Key Dates: First round: October 4, 2026 Runoff (if needed): late October 2026 (TSE sets exact date after round one) Market resolution deadline: November 15, 2026