AI & Tech Milestones 2025
otherWill a model with 200B+ parameters launch publicly?51%
Will SpaceX achieve two consecutive successful Starship launches?50%
Will Apple release an AI-native product category?51%
Will GPT-5 be publicly released?50%
$ 15 Vol.Jun 7, 2027
Chance
Will a model with 200B+ parameters launch publicly?
$ 11 Vol.
Will a model with 200B+ parameters launch publicly?
$ 11 Vol.
51%
Will SpaceX achieve two consecutive successful Starship launches?
$ 2 Vol.
Will SpaceX achieve two consecutive successful Starship launches?
$ 2 Vol.
50%
Will Apple release an AI-native product category?
$ 2 Vol.
Will Apple release an AI-native product category?
$ 2 Vol.
51%
Will GPT-5 be publicly released?
$ 0 Vol.
Will GPT-5 be publicly released?
$ 0 Vol.
50%
Resolution Timeline
Outcome Proposal
Pending
Dispute Period
Pending
Final Resolution
Pending
AI & Tech Milestones 2025
Resolution Criteria
AI & Tech Milestones 2025
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Will SpaceX achieve two consecutive successful Starship launches?yes
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